Drought forecasting is based on forecasted gridded soil moisture time series (EFAS, IFS-SEAS) for the whole of Europe and at regional scale. Two approaches are used, that are the anomaly approach (European Drought Observatory, EDO) and the threshold level method (TLM).
The European Drought Observatory (EDO) provides the soil moisture for the current day and the 7-day forecasted soil moisture every day across Europe.
The TLM forecasts the severity (deficit volume), duration, onset, and termination of the drought in soil moisture in probabilistic terms. The drought occurs when the soil moisture is below the threshold. Summaries of total drought area, total drought duration, and total drought deficit volume are provided.
The probabilistic forecasts are presented as 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile of the 51 ensemble members.