Within EFAS medium range flood forecasts as generated by forcing the LISFLOOD hydrological model with different numerical weather predictions from ECWMF, DWD and the COSMO consortia. The risk of flooding is accessed using two thresholds derived from the model climatology:
- 20 year return-period: Potentially severe flooding is expected
- 5 year return-period: Potentially significant flooding is expected
- Three products are available for both thresholds and are based on different numerical weather predictions:Probability of exceeding either threshold within the next 5 days based on forecasts generated using the COSMO-LEPS ensemble forecast
- Probability of exceeding either threshold within the next 10 days based on the ECCMWF ensemble forecast
Probability of exceeding either threshold within the next 10 days based on a weighted combination of all forecasts.