Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) forecast system

The thermal stress induced by the atmospheric environment, e.g. temperature, wind, humidity and radiation, on the human body is computed as Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) via the UTCI-Fiala advanced multi-node model of thermoregulation and forecast at the pan-European scale.

Description & Technical Information


UTCI forecasts, as proxy for heatwave forecasts, are computed at the pan-European scale with a 10-day lead time as a 6th order polynomial regression function of the meteorological parameters provided by the ensemble forecast system (ENS) from the ECMWF IFS global weather operating system.

Technical information

References Pappenberger F. et al., Int. J. Biometeorol. 59(3): 311-323, 2015; Błażejczyk K. et al., Geogr. Pol. 86(1): 5-10, 2013
References (2) Di Napoli, C., Pappenberger, F. & Cloke, H.L. Int J Biometeorol (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-018-1518-2
Developer UoR
Development Stage TRL=6