SubProject #3

Developing an Integrated Probabilistic FF & DF Forecasting System

SP Leader: ULANC
Partners involved: ULANC, WSL, UPC-CRAHI, WU, JRC

Objective: Produce probabilistic FF & DF forecasts employing the ensembles of rainfall estimates and forecasts generated as part of SP1, in such a manner that they can assist and be useful to risk managers in their real-time decision making duties.

Task 3.1: To adapt the currently available hydrological models LISFLOOD, PREVAH, DICHITOP and TOPMODEL to run in a probabilistic framework in the test-bed basins [ULANC, WSL, UPC-CRAHI, JRC].
Task 3.2: To develop a computationally feasible probabilistic forecasting system that takes account of ensemble rainfall nowcasting (WP1) and uncertainties in rainfall-runoff and flood routing modelling in FF forecasting [ULANC, WSL, UPC- CRAHI, JRC].
Task 3.3: To develop a methodology to condition and select the representative families of parameters of the hydrological models provided their sensitivity to the uncertainties in the precipitation observations and forecasts. The analysis will be carried out using historical data and will be oriented to reduce the number of integrated hydrometeorological ensembles to be computed [UPC-CRAHI, ULANC, WU].
Task 3.4: To provide tools for real-time conditioning of ensemble forecasts based on any available observed flood levels in forecasting downstream flood peak and damage propagation (based on Beven et al., 2005; Romanowicz and Beven, 1998; Romanowicz et al., 2006) [ULANC, WSL].