SubProject #1

Improving short-term rainfall forecasting

SP Leader: MeteoSwiss
Partners involved: MeteoSwiss, UPC-CRAHI, UKZN, SMC, WU, JRC

Objective: Increase the anticipation of FF & DF generating events by the improvement of short-term rainfall forecasting based on radar observations, the assessment of uncertainties using ensemble precipitation nowcasting, and the development of techniques for merging short-term ensemble forecasts from radar-based techniques and NWP models.

Task 1.1: Develop improved extrapolation nowcast technique that combines Lagrangian persistence of radar precipitation fields with knowledge on orographic forcing and a simplified representation of stationarity and quasi-stationarity of heavy convective precipitation over orography. Investigate the influence of mesoscale wind and airmass stability on the location and intensity of heavy convective precipitation over the orography. [MeteoSwiss]
Task 1.2: Develop a methodology to represent uncertainties in radar precipitation fields by using the concept of ensembles and to generate radar ensemble nowcasts in real-time. [MeteoSwiss, UPC-CRAHI, UKZN, WU]
Task 1.3: Develop a technique for blending probabilistic (ensemble) forecasts from radar-based and NWP-model-based precipitation forecasts. [UPC-CRAHI, MeteoSwiss, SMC, UKZN, JRC]