Drought in discharge

Drought forecasts based on forecasted gridded discharge time series (EFAS driven by IFS-SEAS) for a certain spatial domain. The number of ensemble members in drought by the end of 30 days, 90 days, and the end of the forecast, total drought duration, and deficit volume during 7-month in discharge are forecasted.

Description & Technical Information


Drought forecasting is based on forecasted discharge time series (EFAS, IFS-SEAS) for the whole of major European river network and at regional scale. The discharge is at grid points of the major European rivers and collects all the runoff of the upstream grid cells (river and land). The threshold level method (TLM) is applied for the forecasting.
The TLM forecasts the severity (deficit volume), duration), and the number of ensembles showing drought in discharge in major European rivers in probabilistic terms. The drought occurs when the discharge is below the threshold.
The probabilistic forecasts are presented as 25th percentile, median, and 75th percentile of the 51 ensemble members.

Technical information

Coverage pan Europe and Catalonia, as pilot site
Horizon 15-46 days, up to 7 months
Time Resolution daily (TLM, 15-46 days), monthly (TLM, 7 months)
Spatial Resolution 5 km
Update daily (TLM, 15-46 days) and monthly (TLM, 7 months)
Nature Raster Maps
Availability , , ,

Model or Algorithm